Domestic football has only just got underway, and after a mere tantalising glimpse of the drama that is yet to come, it has been snatched away, replaced by the desperate scrap for places at Euro 2016. The race to France lacks the same sense of urgency as its predecessors, with more spaces at the tournament available, but it has brought a whole new range of nations directly into competition with the familiar names.
No side has made waves more than Wales, who have taken four points off Group B favourites Belgium and are now within touching distance of their first major tournament since 1958. A victory in Cyprus this week would give Chris Coleman’s side one foot in France. It is much more straightforward for England, who after winning all seven of their opening games take on Group E whipping-boys San Marino and will qualify with a win in Serravalle if Switzerland also beat Slovenia.
It is Group D that looks set to pack the most drama, however. Poland lead Germany by just a single point and the pair meet in Frankfurt on Friday in a match that should decide who wins the group. Just two points behind Germany are Scotland, who face Georgia, and trailing behind Gordon Strachan’s side on nine points are the Republic of Ireland. Martin O’Neill and his charges know they need to pick up points immediately with their last two games coming against Germany and Poland. This week they take on minnows Gibraltar and are looking for goals. There is a good mix of tight battles and obvious thrashings in international qualifying matches, and so punters looking to make a quick profit need to choose their markets carefully.
- Cyprus vs Wales – Wales to win (17/20 at Sky Bet)
- Gibraltar vs Republic of Ireland – Over 6.5 goals (9/4 at Bet365)
- Germany vs Poland – Half time/Full time, Draw/Germany (12/5 at Bet365)
- San Marino vs England – Under 4.5 goals (21/10 at BetVictor)
Cyprus vs Wales – 3rd September
It is surprising, but Chris Coleman and Wales are the toast of Europe at the moment and up to ninth in the FIFA world rankings. After needing a late winner to overcome minnows Andorra and then drawing at home to Bosnia-Herzegovina, only the most optimistic Welsh fans could see their side reaching the top three of the group. But never mind the top three, spearheaded by the talismanic Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, Wales took four points off Belgium and thrashed Israel in Haifa en route to topping the group with four games left. With just four Group B games left, and Wales’ remaining fixtures including home ties against Israel and Andorra, Welsh fans are already planning for holidays to France next summer.
That run of form began with a nervy 2-1 win over Cyprus in Cardiff, which was a timely show of resilience. Similar resilience will be necessary in Nicosia against a Cypriot outfit that has beaten Andorra twice but was thrashed by Belgium and still have to host the top seeds. Cyprus will need the win, but Wales know that success this time will not just set them on the road to France – it will see them all but arrive there. Sky Bet are offering odds of 17/20 on Bale, Ramsey and co. beating Cyprus, and given their recent form plus the domestic successes of the likes of Ashley Williams and Bale it is worth making a substantial bet to make the odds truly worthwhile.
- Wales to win – 17/20 at Sky Bet
Gibraltar vs Republic of Ireland – 4th September
Republic of Ireland are facing an uphill battle to make it out of Group D, which in this case stands for ‘death’. Martin O’Neill’s side have drawn both of their games against world champions Germany and Euro 2012 co-hosts Poland, but have taken just one point from two games with close rivals Scotland. As a result, they are well adrift of the top spots on nine points, and desperately need both points and goals here. The Irish have scored in every game bar an away defeat in Scotland and should plunder plenty from Gibraltar and Georgia.
Gibraltar’s first ever qualifying campaign for a major tournament has not exactly gone to plan so far – head coach Allen Bula departed in the middle of a campaign punctuated by three 7-0 defeats, against Germany, Poland and the Republic of Ireland. Robbie Keane notched a hat-trick for the Irish that day, with a James McClean brace sandwiching an own goal and Wes Hoolahan rounding off the scoring within the hour mark. Scoring an equalising goal against Scotland at Hampden was a high point, but new head coach Jeff Wood knows that is as good as it is likely to get for UEFA’s newest member. The Republic of Ireland will be looking for goals and Gibraltar are unlikely to be able to stand in their way. Bet365 are offering 9/4 odds on 6.5 goals or more being scored, which means a fourth 7-0 defeat for Gibraltar would do the trick.
- Over 6.5 goals – 9/4 at Bet365
Germany vs Poland – 4th September
In October 2014, Germany travelled to Poland as world champions and looking to qualify for Euro 2016 without a hitch. They left Warsaw stunned and in disarray after Arkadiusz Milik and Sebastian Mila set up a 2-0 win for the hosts. Poland have barely deviated from their course towards Group D victory either, with draws against Scotland and the Republic of Ireland the only blemishes on their record. Germany were held to a stalemate by the Irish as well, and as a result Joachim Löw’s side host Poland this week attempting to overturn a one-point deficit.
This Germany side has learned after early setbacks, however. Unrest followed a victory over Gibraltar despite the 4-0 scoreline as Die Mannschaft failed to exhibit their dominance over the minnows, and the same happened again in a 2-0 win in Georgia, but a 7-0 victory away to Gibraltar was a step in the right direction. Poland will come to Frankfurt sensing victory is in their grasp, and that will be their undoing. It will be a tight game, doubtless, but Germany should have the quality to wrestle top spot from their visitors. Bet365 are offering 12/5 on the scores being level at half time with the world champions victorious after 90 minutes.
- Half time/Full time, Draw/Germany (12/5 at Bet365)
San Marino vs England – 5th September
The situation is quite simple for England – victory against San Marino plus a Swiss win over Slovenia or a draw ensures a place in the top two and therefore a spot in the Euro 2016 finals. A Slovenia win would mean Roy Hodgson’s side sit nine points ahead of both main rivals with three games left. England do not normally make things this straightforward. They fell behind against Slovenia both at home and away but prevailed, and captain Wayne Rooney was needed late on to ensure all three points against Estonia. That aside, England have cruised through Group E as expected, and now all that remains to be seen is if they can maintain their 100 per cent record throughout and if Rooney can become his nation’s record goalscorer.
Rooney could well achieve that feat this weekend against Group E whipping boys San Marino. The Manchester United striker only needs two goals to reach 50 for England and surpass Bobby Charlton’s record, and he will lead England against a nation that has conceded 19 goals in their opening six games. San Marino are on a high after a 0-0 draw with Estonia but are yet to score in this qualifying campaign and are unlikely to do so here. England toiled to a 4-0 win against a San Marino side that kept 11 men behind the ball throughout, and are not known for making things easy for themselves. Conceding the quickest ever goal in World Cup qualifying against San Marino in 1993 is proof of that. England will win, of course, but BetVictor’s offer of 21/10 for under 4.5 goals being scored in this tie is a tempting one.
- Under 4.5 goals (21/10 at BetVictor)