The biggest event in Rugby Union comes around this week as England and Wales host the Rugby World Cup. 20 nations enter at the group stage but only two can reach the final at Twickenham, and the competition should be fierce. There will be no fiercer competition than in Pool A, which features England, Australia, Wales, Fiji and Uruguay. Stuart Lancaster’s side start their World Cup campaign at Twickenham on Friday evening against Fiji as they look to win the trophy for the first time since 2003, with the advantage of playing on home soil. Two of England’s Six Nations contemporaries, France and Italy, go head-to-head at the same ground on Saturday.
Another Pool D fixture sees Six Nations champions Ireland take on Canada at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, while world champions New Zealand begin their title defence against Argentina at Wembley on Sunday. The World Cup is an extended period of non-stop rugby action which provides spectators with a feast of top quality sport, but also gives punters constant opportunities to make a serious profit. These opening four fixtures all have clear favourites, so the secret to success is working out the margin of victory.
- England v Fiji – England to win by 1-12 points (27/10 at Sky Bet)
- France v Italy – France to win by 6-10 points (5/1 at Sky Bet)
- Ireland v Canada – Ireland to win by 51+ points (6/4 at Sky Bet)
- New Zealand v Argentina – New Zealand to win by 16-20 points (5/1 at Totesport)
England v Fiji – 18th September
It does feel like the World Cup is the stage on which Stuart Lancaster and many of his England charges need to prove themselves. Four successive second place finishes in the Six Nations and a drop to fourth in the world rankings, behind Pool A rivals Australia but narrowly above Wales, have not put fans in a positive frame of mind. Defeating their higher-ranked nemesis is vital to progressing to the knockout round and beyond, as winning the pool could see England make it all the way to the final without meeting favourites New Zealand or the ever-dangerous South Africa.
The meetings with Australia and Wales may be the truly big fixtures, but it is vitally important that England do not slip up against Fiji or Uruguay. The former are England’s first opponents, and Fiji are not expected to make a major impact on the tournament. However, they are ranked ninth in the world and have history of causing shocks at the World Cup, beating Wales 38-34 in 2007. England must get over their early-tournament nerves very quickly in order to prevent their scalp being taken, but Lancaster’s side should have the power to start the World Cup with a win. However, it should be close, and Sky Bet are offering 27/10 on England winning by between one and 12 points, which leaves plenty of room for manoeuvre.
- England to win by 1-12 points (27/10 at Sky Bet)
France v Italy – 19th September
The unfortunate reality for France is that few expect the 2011 finalists to go one better in 2015. Fans are pessimistic, and doubt the ability of Philippe Saint-André to bring the trophy home to France after finishing no higher than fourth in four Six Nations campaigns. Yet France were excellent in a warm-up victory over England. “The problem is we’re French,” said Morgan Parra, summing up his side’s inconsistency neatly. If they find form, France can challenge for the World Cup, yet given their volatility it is difficult to predict success with any degree of accuracy. French fans will at least be pleased to see their side has been handed one of the better draws for top seeded sides, in Pool D.
France’s first opponents in the 2015 World Cup are Italy, who they beat 29-0 in the Six Nations Cup this year. The Italians have featured in every single World Cup but have never escaped the pool stage, and will need to beat either France or Ireland to progress. Their best chance, surely, is against the perennially shaky French. Saint-André’s charges may be inconsistent, but they are still powerful, and this match should just prove a warm-up ahead of the vital clash with the Irish. However, Italy will not make it easy, and Sky Bet are offering 5/1 on France to secure what would be an uninspiring victory by six to 10 points.
- France to win by 6-10 points (5/1 at Sky Bet)
Ireland v Canada – 19th September
2015 has been an extremely successful year for Ireland. Winning the Six Nations outright for the 12th time propelled Joe Schmidt’s side into second in the world rankings, for a short while at least, and now the Irish set their sights on winning the World Cup for the first time. Ireland’s record on the world’s biggest stage is surprisingly poor; they have never progressed past the quarter-finals, even dropping out at the pool stage in 2007, their so-called ‘golden generation’ falling well short of expectations. This is no golden generation, but it is a squad packed with excellent players and shrewdly managed by Schmidt. Ireland go into the World Cup off the back of consecutive defeats, to Wales and England, but they will not be overly concerned.
Ireland have even been afforded the luxury of opening their World Cup campaign against Canada and Romania, facing Italy afterwards before concluding with what could be a tournament-defining clash with France in Cardiff. Canada have not progressed from the pool stage since 1991, and conceded 168 points in 2011, including a 79-15 defeat to New Zealand. Interestingly, only France managed to score more points against eventual champions New Zealand in 2011 than the Canadians, but they concede in big numbers, and Ireland will be looking to start their title tilt in style. Sky Bet are offering 6/4 on Ireland to win by 51 points or more, which underlines the perception of how this game will go. Given that Canada have not beaten a tier one team in 10 years since a win over Argentina in Calgary, a shock is certainly not on the cards. A thrashing may well be.
- Ireland to win by 51+ points (6/4 at Sky Bet)
New Zealand v Argentina – 20th September
The world champions begin the defence of the title they won on home soil in 2011 at Wembley this weekend, and they are widely expected to launch at least a strong defence, if not a successful one. Steve Hansen’s side have not left their spot at the top of the world rankings for six years now, and despite losing the Rugby Championship to Australia this summer they exacted revenge on their antipodean rivals just a week later with a 41-13 thrashing. New Zealand are overwhelming favourites, as they were in 2011 when they lived up to their billing, but also as they were in 2007 when they were toppled by France. Hansen must ensure his side does not slip up when the entire world appears to be at their feet.
New Zealand find themselves in Pool C, which is not a walk in the park, but more a light jog. Namibia will be the group’s whipping boys, while Georgia and Tonga will at least put up a fight, but opening day opponents Argentina should be the biggest obstacle to overcome. A remarkable third place finish in 2007 is as good as it has got for Argentina, but they should at least reach the quarter finals this year, where they are likely to face either Ireland or France. Daniel Hourcade’s side have the potential to surprise the big boys, but New Zealand operate in an entirely different league to the rest. Totesport have the New Zealand juggernaut at 5/1 to rumble onwards and beat Argentina by 16-20 points. Needless to say, it will almost certainly be the narrowest margin of victory for the world champions in the pool stage.
- New Zealand to win by 16-20 points (5/1 at Totesport)