Just two massive fixtures stand in the way of Northern Ireland and Wales realising their European Championship dreams. The home nations head in to this last double header of games in varying positions, but they each have something to play for. While England’s stars are playing for places at the tournament next summer, the rest of the British and Irish sides still have to try and earn their spots this week. Can they get over the line, and ensure the best qualifying campaign for the home nations in recent memory?
The pressure is on them to wrap up the necessary points this week, in the final round of fixtures from each group. While there are some great stories from around the continent, few compare to the efforts of the Welsh or Northern Irish sides so far. Elsewhere, there’s a fight for third place between Scotland and the Republic of Ireland in Group D, with the Irish still holding faint hopes of pipping Poland to second. We’ll be going through all that and more, previewing the big games for the UK teams, and picking out our best bet for each.
- Northern Ireland v Greece – Draw (2/1 with Coral)
- Scotland v Poland – Both teams to score (evens with Sky Bet)
- Estonia v England – England -2 (6/5 with BetVictor)
- Bosnia v Wales – Wales win/draw double chance (21/20 with Bet365)
Northern Ireland v Greece – Thursday 8th October 2015
Northern Ireland know that victory in this game would assure them of a place in the European Championships. They currently top their group going into the final two fixtures, but they’re still in a three way fight with Romania and Hungary for a spot in France next year. To qualify, they just need to match the Hungarians’ result at home to the Faroe Islands, although you’d imagine the eastern Europeans would be able to pick up three points there. If Northern Ireland are to finally get over the line this week, you’d imagine they’d have to pick up a win to do that. Can they see off the bottom of the table Greeks and start booking their flights to France?
While you want to back them after their great campaign so far, there are a few problems for Michael O’Neill here. His side are without several key players through suspension, including talismanic striker Kyle Lafferty. He’s usually a great pick for an anytime scorer bet in a Northern Ireland shirt, given that he has hit seven goals in eight games so far. That kind of record will surely be missed, especially given how little firepower the Ulstermen have elsewhere in their team. Those seven goals are over half their total for this qualifying campaign, and they have no other proven international scorers. Greece have had a below par record in this group, but they have managed to pick up a point away to both Hungary and Romania. We’re backing them to come away from Windsor with another point, leaving Northern Ireland still sweating on their place in the finals.
- Draw at 2/1 with Coral
Scotland v Poland – Thursday 8th October 2015
On the same night, Scotland will be hoping to take a big step on their path to the Euros, as they aim to pip the Republic of Ireland to third place and nab a play-off spot. They trail the Irish by four points heading into the final two games. The Republic have two tricky fixtures at home to Germany and away in Poland, so there still is a chance for Scotland. You’d imagine the Scots will easily win their final game against Gibraltar, so a point in this game, coupled with two defeats for the Irish, would see them edge it on head to head record. But can they stop a Polish side that contains the current best striker in the world, Robert Lewandowski?
It’s hard to see the Scots getting much out of this game, as the technical ability of this Poland side is likely to outclass them, even with home advantage. They showed at home to Germany last month that they were capable of taking on the best and giving them a run for their money, but they ultimately came up short. This Poland side aren’t as good as Germany of course, but they’re still a talented team. We do see Scotland being able to push forward and threaten the Polish defence, whilst a goal – or two – for the Poles seems very likely. Both teams to score is priced at evens with Sky Bet, and that looks like a great value bet.
- Both teams to score – evens with Sky Bet
England v Estonia – Friday 9th October
England have already wrapped up their place in the finals next summer, so Roy Hodgson is likely to experiment a little, fielding players who will be desperate to show their worth. The England manager already said he wants his side to aim for a 100% record in this group, and they should really be able to that against an Estonia side who drew 0-0 with San Marino. A thumping win will still be expected, as the Three Lions look to build some momentum ahead of the Euros. The main problem for punters is the price of 1/8 on the home side winning, so just where do you find value on a game like this?
While England don’t seem to perform against the bigger nations or in the finals themselves, they do have a great record of blowing away below par teams. They tend to very easily take victories in games against the weaker nations, which is partly why they are qualifying regulars. Once the team get up and running, this routine game seems like nothing. Given that, plus the fact that there are certainly places up for grabs in this England squad, we expect a big performance and comfortable win for the Three Lions. Backing them to take the win with a -2 handicap, i.e. to win by three or more goals, looks like great value to us. That’s currently priced at 13/10 with BetVictor, and it looks like the one to back for Friday’s game.
- England -2 handicap – 6/5 with BetVictor
Bosnia v Wales – Saturday 10th October
Potentially the biggest game in Welsh football history comes on Saturday night, as Chris Coleman’s side chase the solitary point needed to secure their place in France next summer. With Gareth Bale likely to be fit, this should be a strong Welsh outfit making the trip, and they’ll be hoping to give their fans something to celebrate. With the rugby team taking on Australia earlier in the day, it could be a massive day for Welsh sport. The big question for his game is how will Wales set up? We know they need just a point, but do they come here looking to win, or do they go defensive in the hope of grinding out a draw?
First instinct here was a Wales win at close to 4/1, given how brilliantly they’ve played so far. Bosnia haven’t set the world alight in this group, so they aren’t the most terrifying of prospects for the Welsh. Bale and co have proven in the past that they can go somewhere and grind out a result, having drawn 0-0 in Belgium earlier in the campaign. If Chris Coleman wants to do that he could, but do they really need to? With Andorra to come at home in the next game, they can afford to be a little more open here. Wales will be going through either this match or the next, but on current form we’re backing them to seal qualification on Saturday. With Wales or draw in the double chance market at 21/20 with bet365, that’s the way we’re going on this match.
- Wales to win/draw double chance – 21/20 with Bet365