The penultimate weekend of the group stages of this year’s Rugby World Cup produces some interesting clashes. Last weekend produced great heartbreak and joy in spades. England’s narrow 28-25 loss against Wales – despite dominating the game for large periods – proved just how cruel elite level sport can be at times. Canada were another side that had victory snatched away from them despite them looking to be on the verge of a big upset against a poor Italian side.
Whereas the two aforementioned games were tight encounters, other sides that played last weekend produced some clinical performances in largely one-sided fixtures. Australia comprehensively thumped Uruguay 65-3 and they go into their game against England on Saturday evening with two wins already in the bank. Ireland are another side to possess a 100 percent record so far at this tournament with them recording a 44-10 victory over Romania. However, the performance of the weekend came from South Africa who restored some pride in the Springboks jersey by beating Samoa 46-6 in a much-improved performance compared to the one they gave in their shock defeat against Japan.
- South Africa to win by a margin of 1-10 points – 13/5 with Betfair
- England to win by a margin of 6-10 points – 5/1 with Ladbrokes
- Highest scoring half: second half – 4/6 with Ladbrokes
South Africa v Scotland – 3rd October 2015
Who would have predicted that it would be Scotland going into this one undefeated rather than the group favourites South Africa? The Springboks’ shock defeat to Japan has led to this pool being wide open in terms of who will qualify for the knockout stages of the tournament. However, their performance against Samoa demonstrated why they were one of the pre-tournament favourites. The loss of Jean De-Villiers from their squad due to a fractured jaw and his ultimate retirement from international rugby may have a very detrimental impact upon squad moral as he has for years been an inspirational leader for his side.
Scotland on the other hand have had an almost drama-free start to the tournament in collecting wins over the USA and Japan, with their backline looking lethal, in particular the exciting Mark Bennett. Up front they have showed real grit, particularly in the performances of both of the Gray brothers and recent squad addition John Hardie, the former Highlander.
This game is likely to be closer than anyone would have thought at the start of the World Cup, due to the increased intensity that Vern Cotter’s side seems to be performing with at the moment. After regularly failing to perform in the Six Nations year after year, they seem to have found extra motivation to reach their first quarter final of a World Cup in a long time. Due to a combination of a poor Four Nations and also the defeat against Japan, the odds on a South Africa victory have lengthened somewhat, though they are still the heavy odds-on favourites. However, whilst we feel that Scotland will give South Africa a better game than before, South Africa as shown by their performance against Samoa still have the firepower to beat Scotland on Saturday, if not by the margins some had predicted prior to the tournament.
- South Africa to win by a margin of 1-10 points – 13/5 with Betfair
England v Australia – 3rd October 2015
There are only a few games in a decade that can be viewed as being bigger than this Saturday’s game between two heavyweights of the game. England come into this one on the back of a harrowing defeat against Wales when they had the game in the grasp of their hands for large periods. Both the boots of Dan Biggar and Owen Farrell were metronomic in their accuracy throughout the game and the deciding factor in the outcome was England’s indiscipline at the breakdown. England’s cause to qualify won’t be helped by the injury withdrawal of Billy Vunipola from the tournament as he was the one genuine player who had the ability to get England over the gain line.
Australia’s progression through the tournament has been far more straightforward in their easy wins over Fiji and Uruguay. With a backline including Israel Folau, Tevita Kurindrani and Drew Mitchell they possess great threat to the English defence, however their selection of two genuine opensides in Michael Hooper and David Pocock gives them a distinct advantage over an English pack that has struggled at the breakdown in recent years.
Whilst Australia possess an advantage over the English at the breakdown and potentially in terms of pace in the backline, England have a genuinely world class goal kicker in Owen Farrell, whereas Australia have really struggled with both Quade Cooper and Bernard Foley from the tee. This is where we feel England have a real edge in this one as after the debacle over a dodgy decision not to take a penalty kick it is likely that England will be far more pragmatic and take points whenever they are on offer. This is likely to be a very tight encounter with their likely to be very few tries and therefore the more accurate kicker England can all upon is likely to be decisive.
- England to win by a margin of 6-10 points – 5/1 with Ladbrokes
Ireland v Italy – 4th October 2015
The Italians having lost their opener against France, were pushed surprisingly hard by a Canadian side that apart from DTH Van der Merwe and Jamie Cudmore had very little in terms of experience. What was exposed is that without influential captain Sergio Parisse they are a shadow of the side when he is fit and firing. One notable aspect of this performance was the lack of organisation within their defensive system as well as a general lack of fitness around the park. Ireland on the other hand have had a terrific start to the tournament albeit against relatively modest opposition in amassing bonus point wins against Romania and Canada, who they dealt with far more comfortably than the Italians did the following week. However, the most promising thing to emerge out of the group stages for Ireland is the return to form and fitness of some of their key players, particularly the likes of Cian Healy and Sean O’Brien.
It is likely that the Irish greater fitness levels combined with their greater control from half back by whoever partners the great Jonny Sexton will be crucial factors in this one. The tip that we feel is a smart punt this week is betting on the second half to be the highest scoring half. If you have watched Italy’s game versus Canada last week you will have noticed how tired Italy looked for large periods of the second half, and this adds weight to the argument that Ireland might just run away with it after the break. This Italian side, apart from Parisse, is not a vintage one, as key players such as the Bergamasco brothers, Martin Castrogiovanni and Andrea Masi are now past their best and this should also contribute to the second half being very open.
- Highest scoring half, second half – 4/6 with Ladbrokes