With the protracted drama of the Rugby World Cup pool stage now at a close, the eight teams who dodged shocks and slip-ups have reached the business end of the competition. Pre-tournament favourites New Zealand and Australia progressed comfortably, but hosts England became the first side to fail to escape the pool stage in a World Cup on home soil. Their conquerors, Wales, take on Pool B winners South Africa, who themselves almost succumbed to stunning failure before recovering to usurp Scotland. Vern Cotter’s side settled for second after a nervy victory over Samoa, and their reward is a tie against the all-conquering Wallabies.
Earlier in the week there is cricketing action as England begin their United Arab Emirates-based Test series against Pakistan in Sharjah, with Trevor Bayliss looking for a successful first tour in charge of his new side. On Saturday, Nathan Cleverly’s quest to win the Light Heavyweight title he lost in 2013 continues with a bout against Andrzej Fonfara in Chicago. The Welshman is the underdog, as is his nation in their World Cup clash, and it would take a brave person to back them – likewise Scotland’s rugby team and the England cricket side, both battling the past as well as present opposition. Winning at long odds is the dream most punters chase, but good money can be made off backing the favourites too.
- South Africa v Wales – South Africa -5 handicap (8/13 at Sky Bet)
- Australia v Scotland – Australia, winning margin 13+ (10/13 at Sky Bet)
- Pakistan v England, first Test – Pakistan to win (5/4 at Coral)
- Andrzej Fonfara v Nathan Cleverly – Fonfara to win (2/5 at Sky Bet)
South Africa v Wales – 17th October
Considering they opened their Rugby World Cup by falling to arguably the biggest shock defeat in the sport’s history, South Africa have staged an impressive recovery to top Pool B and reach the quarter-finals. The 34-32 reverse against an inspired Japan side made the 2007 World Cup winners look insipid and uninspired, but crushing wins against Scotland, Samoa and the USA saw Heyneke Meyer’s side progress as pool winners. Wales, meanwhile, overcame the odds to dump England out at the pool stage despite a raft of injuries. Their lack of discipline against an Australia side that themselves had two men sin-binned cost Warren Gatland’s side an enticing quarter-final tie with Scotland, but this Wales side fears nobody.
South Africa are undoubtedly the favourites, and for good reason. Wales may have won the last meeting between the two sides in an autumn international, but the Springboks had won the 16 ties before that, including a 17-16 success at the last World Cup. Only Argentina racked up more points in the pool stage than South Africa, and they have the power to outscore any side. They will not find it easy against a dogged Wales defence though – the level of discipline to keep England at bay while Dan Biggar kicked them to victory was remarkable. But Sky Bet’s offer of 8/13 on South Africa with a handicap of -5 makes sense. South Africa have scored 23 tries to Wales’ 11 and that in itself is worth betting on the Springboks to outmuscle the underdogs. Wales are no Japan, after all.
- South Africa -5 handicap – 8/13 at Sky Bet
Australia v Scotland – 18th October
Scotland never make anything straightforward. After brushing aside Japan and the USA before a defeat to South Africa, all Vern Cotter’s side needed was a win against an abject Samoa side that racked up just 11 points in their games against the Brave Blossoms and the Springboks. The Scots won alright, but only after a heart-wrenching 80 minutes which saw Samoa take a 26-23 lead into the half-time break. If they play as they did in the opening stages at St James’ Park against Australia, they will be mauled by a side that made light work of World Cup hosts England.
Australia may have relied on the boot of Bernard Foley on a number of occasions, particularly in their 15-6 win over Wales in which Foley converted five penalties, but their 17 tries in Pool A reflect the Wallabies’ scoring power. Scotland’s Greig Laidlaw is the World Cup’s top scorer with 60 points thus far, but if Australia keep him quiet the Scots lack potency. Given Argentina’s resurgence, Wales’ stoicism and France’s penchant for taking on New Zealand, Australia are by far and away the biggest favourite to reach the semi-finals. Sky Bet are offering 10/13 on the Wallabies winning this quarter-final by 13 points or more, and if Scotland are even half as shoddy defensively as they were against Samoa it is the safest bet of the week.
- Australia to win by 13+ points – 10/13 at Sky Bet
Pakistan v England – 13th October
It was, in the end, a truly successful summer for English cricket. The Ashes series, the first since five day Tests were introduced in which every match was settled in four days or fewer, was a topsy-turvy affair. For the capitulations at Lord’s and the Oval, there were the impressive thrashings dished out in Cardiff, Birmingham and Nottingham. For every scintillating showing by Stuart Broad and Joe Root, there was an abject failure by Adam Lyth or Jos Buttler. Now attentions turn to the UAE as England head to the Middle East to take on Pakistan, and there are a number of questions to be answered, most pertinent of which is the debate over who replaces Lyth as Alistair Cook’s partner and opening bat. Moeen Ali and Alex Hales are the candidates, but both struggled against Pakistan A in a warm-up game.
It was not only the batsmen who toiled – the bowling attack failed to skittle Pakistan A in the Sharjah dust bowl, and they will have to improve vastly to make their mark on a Pakistan side that rarely fails on their adopted home soil. The secret is in the spin, as it often is in the subcontinent, and in that respect the tourists are hopelessly outgunned. Adil Rashid and Ali must take wickets in bulk if the pace men fail, and England’s batsmen must deal with the wicked spin of Yasir Shah, the fastest ever Pakistan bowler to reach 50 Test wickets. Pakistan are the favourites, and quite rightly so. This young England side and new coach Trevor Bayliss will get a baptism of fire in the sweltering Sharjah heat, and Pakistan are available to back at good odds to win this one – 5/4 at Coral is well worth taking. Whether England adapt and gain a foothold in the Series is another question entirely.
- Pakistan to win – 5/4 at Coral
Andrzej Fonfara v Nathan Cleverly – 17th October
After a brief and unsuccessful tilt at Cruiserweight glory, Nathan Cleverly takes his next step towards regaining the WBO Light Heavyweight title he lost over two years ago. The Cruiserweight dream was ended by Tony Bellew over a year ago, and this bout with Andrzej Fonfara represents the Welshman’s first major fixture since the defeat in Liverpool. Cleverly swatted aside Tomas Man in May, stopping the Czech fighter after just 42 seconds, but he faces a much tougher fight in Chicago. Hard-hitting Pole Fonfara has adopted the Windy City as his second home, and a partisan home crowd will greet Cleverly as he looks for a route towards a decisive bout with Adonis Stevenson, who beat Fonfara by a unanimous decision to thwart the 27-year-old’s first attempt at the WBC title.
Bellew’s split decision win cast Cleverly in a kind light as the Welshman was outfought in most rounds, and Fonfara’s power will be tough to live with. With the WBC International Light Heavyweight belt at stake both will be geared up for a fight that promises fireworks, but it is a stepping stone for both. While Fonfara seems destined to take another shot at establishing himself as the best in his weight division, a defeat for Cleverly so soon after dropping down from Cruiserweight could prove fatal. Fonfara is powerful, far-reaching and ready for this bout – it isn’t clear if the Welshman is as prepared to defeat the Pole in Chicago. 2/5 with Sky Bet on Fonfara to win is not the most enticing offer but certainly the shrewder one.
- Fonfara to win – 2/5 at Sky Bet