The Rugby World Cup is hurtling towards an exciting conclusion and we have but four matches left, three if you discount the somewhat pointless third-place play-off game, the so-called Bronze Final.
It’s the semi-finals that we’re looking at here as tournament favourites New Zealand play South Africa on Saturday before Argentina and Australia battle it out on Sunday. Both games kick-off at 4pm and both will be played at Twickenham but we’re predicting distinctly different outcomes in each game.
- New Zealand v South Africa – New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (11/2 at Betfair)
- Argentina v Australia – Argentina to win (12/5 at Bet365)
- Argentina v Australia – Argentina to win by 1-10 points (7/2 at Coral)
New Zealand v South Africa – 24 October 2015
New Zealand are huge favourites to win the 2015 Rugby World Cup, priced at little more than evens before the competition began and now as short as 8/13. They looked good in the Pool phase without really sparking into life but they have been growing into the tournament nicely and their 62-13 win over France in the quarters sent a clear message to all the other teams bidding for glory. New Zealand have world class players in every area, they are full of confidence and they know what it takes to win a World Cup, boasting a great blend of youthful exuberance and hardened experience. In short, they are going to take some stopping.
In contrast the Springboks have struggled through their World Cup. They came back well from a humiliating defeat against Japan to top Pool B but they barely scraped past Wales in the quarters and we fear they may be out of their depth here. They have some tough players, as always, but lack that little bit of class and with just two wins from their last 12 meetings with the All Blacks we can’t see them replicating their win over the Kiwis at the 1999 RWC in Cardiff. Just as New Zealand did in their last game, we think they will rise to the occasion and so our betting tip here is for a big win for the favourites, with a winning margin of 21-30 looking well worth a bet at long odds.
- New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (11/2 at Betfair)
Argentina v Australia – 25 October 2015
The second semi-final should be a closer affair as Argentina play Australia in a game most experts fancy will be won by Michael Cheika’s Australians. The Wallabies have come on a great deal under his coaching regime and their all-round game and control against England was very good, whilst the resolve they showed defending with 13 men against Wales was equally impressive. That said, they barely scraped past Scotland in the quarters, with a lot of help from the match officials. Moreover, their win over England has to be viewed in the context of how bad England performed at this tournament and even the win over Wales is in some ways questionable given the fact that a more ruthless attack would surely have finished them off. Despite these issues the bookies make the Aussies big favourites, with Coral’s 2/5 the best odds you’ll get on them.
The Pumas are out at 12/5 with Bet365, whilst the draw is 28/1 with Sky Bet – a generous, if fanciful, offer given Betfair are as short as 16/1. Argentina pushed the All Blacks very hard in a 26-16 pool stage loss and against the three lesser sides in Pool C they actually outperformed their more illustrious rivals. Argentina have improved a huge amount over the last few years, with regular top level rugby really challenging their players. The Argentine national psyche is perfect for rugby and the Pumas are tough and hard to beat, with a little dash of arrogance and brilliance thrown in for good measure. They humbled Ireland in the quarters and will come into this one full of confidence, relishing their role, underserved in our eyes, as underdogs. Our number one betting tip is to back them to win, or you can up your odds further with Coral’s 7/2 on a win by 1-10 points whilst they look a banker with a +6 handicap.
- Argentina to win (12/5 at Bet365) / Argentina to win by 1-10 points (7/2 at Coral)